First Try at Evaluation

May 27, 2008
Player AVG CT % BB % BABIP HR HR/FB
Navarro, Dionner 0.369 89.0% 6.7% 0.408 1 3.4%
Francisco, Ben 0.338 82.4% 2.6% 0.390 2 6.7%
Ludwick, Ryan 0.333 72.0% 12.0% 0.386 13 28.3%
Molina, Benjie 0.327 94.0% 3.5% 0.327 5 6.8%
Hamilton, Josh 0.327 86.0% 7.8% 0.337 12 18.5%
Bradley, Milton 0.325 76.1% 16.4% 0.388 8 17.4%
Uggla, Dan 0.317 71.0% 11.2% 0.368 16 22.9%
Kemp, Matt 0.315 72.2% 7.2% 0.417 3 8.8%
Giles, Brian 0.302 89.0% 14.3% 0.329 3 5.1%
Hart, Corey 0.302 78.8% 6.4% 0.357 6 12.5%
Sweeney, Ryan 0.293 81.0% 10.1% 0.348 2 5.7%
Pence, Hunter 0.292 78.0% 7.0% 0.343 7 13.0%
Gonzalez, Adrian 0.283 77.0% 6.3% 0.306 14 20.9%
Burrell, Pat 0.276 76.5% 19.8% 0.291 13 21.7%
Scott, Luke 0.269 75.7% 10.0% 0.298 5 13.1%
Rios, Alexis 0.263 75.6% 9.3% 0.336 3 5.5%
Castillo, Luis 0.259 90.2% 13.3% 0.281 1 3.7%
Suzuki, Kurt 0.253 86.0% 6.8% 0.289 1 1.4%
Cust, Jack 0.252 64.0% 21.9% 0.333 8 26.7%
Dunn, Adam 0.252 72.2% 20.5% 0.260 13 25.5%
Beltre, Adrian 0.247 83.0% 10.6% 0.252 10 15.6%
Reynolds, Mark 0.225 64.7% 10.4% 0.298 8 15.1%
Hafner, Travis 0.217 72.0% 12.8% 0.275 4 10.3%
Delgado, Carlos 0.215 77.3% 10.0% 0.235 8 16.0%
Swisher, Nick 0.205 76.0% 16.2% 0.284 4 13.7%

This is my first try at looking at players rate statistics and making inferences. I chose a few players who recently have had high and low batting averages and then looked at their component stats to determine what is the cause of their BA. The HR and HR/FB% only apply to some people, that is really for another post, but is interesting nonetheless.

Here are a few points that I found.

-Ben Francisco has a terribly low walk rate of 2.6% but in the minors it was around 11%. I would expect that to rise. He has a high BABIP, but has a contact rate that supports it. If he gets his walk rate up to minor league levels, he could be legit.

-Benjie Molina has improved his contact rate 4% since the past few years. His BABIP is high at 327, it should naturally regress. But he should have a lower than average BABIP because he is such a slow runner.

-Milton Bradley is posting the highest walk rate of his career. His BA should decline due to the high BABIP and below average ct%. But he should be a decent low end OF in fantasy.

-Dan Uggla has been hitting HR’s at an alarming rate. He is at 22.9%. His career level is 13%. It could drop off or he has increased his ability for home runs. His BA will drop eventually with his low ct% and high BABIP

-Matt Kemp has increased his walk rate 2% since last year.

-Corey Hart looks like the same guy he was last year

-Adrian Gonzalez’s HR/FB% has increased 5% since last season.

-Pat Burrell’s 21.7% HR/FB% is the highest of his career. He walks a ton and in a contract year he is looking to get PAID next season. I’m curious where he will go and what he will get.

-Alex Rios’s contact rate and HR/FB% are way below last years numbers. I would expect those to go up and him to increase his production.

-Kurt Suzuki is walking less than last season. If he gets the walks up, his high contact rate should support a high average

-Jack Cust is Adam Dunn…with more strikeouts

-Adrian Beltre is having a great season, his highest walk rate as a Mariner and since 1999. He is also sporting the highest HR/FB% since his monster ’04 season. He should continue to put up solid numbers.

-Looks like Travis Hafner has gone on a major decline this year. He is striking out more, walking less and less of his fly balls are going for homeruns. His walk rate this year is 12.8% in his ’06 season it was at 18%. This season his HR/FB% is 10.3%, in his best seasons it was 30.2% and 24.4%. I don’t think he is a buy low. I’d trade him if you can convince someone to take him.

-Carlos Delgado is on his last legs. He was amazing in his prime as a Blue Jay, now he is a shell of his former self.

-Nick Swisher should be fine, he is in line with his career numbers.

Alright, well that was my first take on this. Hope you found some of this interesting, thanks for reading.