First Try at Evaluation

Player	AVG	CT %	BB %	BABIP	HR	HR/FB
Navarro, Dionner	0.369	89.0%	6.7%	0.408	1	3.4%
Francisco, Ben	0.338	82.4%	2.6%	0.390	2	6.7%
Ludwick, Ryan	0.333	72.0%	12.0%	0.386	13	28.3%
Molina, Benjie	0.327	94.0%	3.5%	0.327	5	6.8%
Hamilton, Josh	0.327	86.0%	7.8%	0.337	12	18.5%
Bradley, Milton	0.325	76.1%	16.4%	0.388	8	17.4%
Uggla, Dan	0.317	71.0%	11.2%	0.368	16	22.9%
Kemp, Matt	0.315	72.2%	7.2%	0.417	3	8.8%
Giles, Brian	0.302	89.0%	14.3%	0.329	3	5.1%
Hart, Corey	0.302	78.8%	6.4%	0.357	6	12.5%
Sweeney, Ryan	0.293	81.0%	10.1%	0.348	2	5.7%
Pence, Hunter	0.292	78.0%	7.0%	0.343	7	13.0%
Gonzalez, Adrian	0.283	77.0%	6.3%	0.306	14	20.9%
Burrell, Pat	0.276	76.5%	19.8%	0.291	13	21.7%
Scott, Luke	0.269	75.7%	10.0%	0.298	5	13.1%
Rios, Alexis	0.263	75.6%	9.3%	0.336	3	5.5%
Castillo, Luis	0.259	90.2%	13.3%	0.281	1	3.7%
Suzuki, Kurt	0.253	86.0%	6.8%	0.289	1	1.4%
Cust, Jack	0.252	64.0%	21.9%	0.333	8	26.7%
Dunn, Adam	0.252	72.2%	20.5%	0.260	13	25.5%
Beltre, Adrian	0.247	83.0%	10.6%	0.252	10	15.6%
Reynolds, Mark	0.225	64.7%	10.4%	0.298	8	15.1%
Hafner, Travis	0.217	72.0%	12.8%	0.275	4	10.3%
Delgado, Carlos	0.215	77.3%	10.0%	0.235	8	16.0%
Swisher, Nick	0.205	76.0%	16.2%	0.284	4	13.7%

This is my first try at looking at players rate statistics and making inferences. I chose a few players who recently have had high and low batting averages and then looked at their component stats to determine what is the cause of their BA. The HR and HR/FB% only apply to some people, that is really for another post, but is interesting nonetheless.

Here are a few points that I found.

-Ben Francisco has a terribly low walk rate of 2.6% but in the minors it was around 11%. I would expect that to rise. He has a high BABIP, but has a contact rate that supports it. If he gets his walk rate up to minor league levels, he could be legit.

-Benjie Molina has improved his contact rate 4% since the past few years. His BABIP is high at 327, it should naturally regress. But he should have a lower than average BABIP because he is such a slow runner.

-Milton Bradley is posting the highest walk rate of his career. His BA should decline due to the high BABIP and below average ct%. But he should be a decent low end OF in fantasy.

-Dan Uggla has been hitting HR’s at an alarming rate. He is at 22.9%. His career level is 13%. It could drop off or he has increased his ability for home runs. His BA will drop eventually with his low ct% and high BABIP

-Matt Kemp has increased his walk rate 2% since last year.

-Corey Hart looks like the same guy he was last year

-Adrian Gonzalez’s HR/FB% has increased 5% since last season.

-Pat Burrell’s 21.7% HR/FB% is the highest of his career. He walks a ton and in a contract year he is looking to get PAID next season. I’m curious where he will go and what he will get.

-Alex Rios’s contact rate and HR/FB% are way below last years numbers. I would expect those to go up and him to increase his production.

-Kurt Suzuki is walking less than last season. If he gets the walks up, his high contact rate should support a high average

-Jack Cust is Adam Dunn…with more strikeouts

-Adrian Beltre is having a great season, his highest walk rate as a Mariner and since 1999. He is also sporting the highest HR/FB% since his monster ’04 season. He should continue to put up solid numbers.

-Looks like Travis Hafner has gone on a major decline this year. He is striking out more, walking less and less of his fly balls are going for homeruns. His walk rate this year is 12.8% in his ’06 season it was at 18%. This season his HR/FB% is 10.3%, in his best seasons it was 30.2% and 24.4%. I don’t think he is a buy low. I’d trade him if you can convince someone to take him.

-Carlos Delgado is on his last legs. He was amazing in his prime as a Blue Jay, now he is a shell of his former self.

-Nick Swisher should be fine, he is in line with his career numbers.

Alright, well that was my first take on this. Hope you found some of this interesting, thanks for reading.

Some points to remember

This is my first blog post. I will try (if I keep this up), to look at baseball players and their skill statistics and make inferences based on these stats.

Certain stats that I will be looking into are.

BABIP – Batting Average on Balls in Play. How often a ball put in play goes for a hit. Hitters average around .300, pitchers is varied as some pitchers have the skill to get more outs. Shitty pitchers will have higher BABIP’s. Check the pitchers career line for BABIP.

Contact Rate CT% – AB-K/AB – How often a player makes contact, makes an out on a ball put in play. Average ct% is 81%. The best are over 85% and worst are below 75%.

Walk Rate bb% – How often a player walks. Average is 9%. Best over 10%. Worst under 5%

HR/FB% – The amount of home runs per fly ball.

Here we go.

Ron Shandler and Co. have determined that true .300 hitters post a contact rate of 86% or better and a walk rate of 11% or better

Contrasting Rotations

I have taken the time to assemble the statistics of two American League rotations. At the top of the list is the Toronto Blue Jays, who have a solid rotation one through five. At the end of the list is the Seattle Mariners, who happen to be my favourite team, they have a beyond bad rotation.

Here is what a good rotation looks like. While GB% is not relevant for all pitchers, for some it is a staple of their success.

Toronto Blue Jays
Pitcher	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	FIP	BABIP	HR/9	GB%
Halladay, Roy	3.11	0.98	6.89	1.11	6.21	2.72	0.278	0.56	59.7%
Burnett, AJ	4.69	1.47	7.82	4.12	1.90	3.52	0.327	0.57	48.4%
McGowan, Dustin	3.90	1.42	6.82	3.76	1.81	3.54	0.317	0.42	46.9%
Marcum, Shaun	2.64	0.87	8.16	2.64	3.10	3.70	0.194	1.00	47.4%
Litsch, Jesse	3.57	1.16	5.28	1.24	4.25	4.37	0.278	1.40	48.7%

Why have the Blue Jays been so successful? As a rotation, only one pitcher has an ERA above 4, and only one pitcher has an FIP above 4 (not the same pitchers). The Blue Jays pitchers minimize the number of walks, with an average K/BB of 3.454. Roy Halladay has been the best and most efficient pitcher with a K/BB of 6.21 and inducing ground balls 60% of the time. He has a minuscule WHIP of 0.98. The Blue Jays pitchers have also kept the ball in the park, as a staff average of 0.79 HR/9, only one pitcher allows more than 1 HR/9. These guys are good, I would look for their success to continue.

On the contrast, here are the statistics for the mariners rotation.

Pitcher	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	FIP	BABIP	HR/9	GB%
Bedard, Erik	4.70	1.30	7.83	3.91	2.00	5.03	0.263	1.57	42.6%
Hernandez, Felix	3.60	1.47	7.44	3.96	1.88	3.97	0.319	0.84	49.1%
Silva, Carlos	5.14	1.37	3.42	1.71	2.00	4.48	0.313	1.05	42.8%
Washburn, Jarrod	6.54	1.51	5.37	2.18	2.46	4.78	0.282	1.34	36.1%
Batista, Miguel	6.47	1.97	6.47	5.73	1.13	4.69	0.374	0.74	45.0%

Wow, these guys are brutal. Jesse Litsch, the 5th starter for the Blue Jays would lead the Mariners in ERA. The mariners have three pitchers with ERA’s above 5. They walk too many batters, with a collective average K/BB of 1.89. The WHIP’s across the board are average, and the BABIP’s are high. Soon enough some of these guys will lose their job. I thought the Carlos Silva signing was bad when it was announced, but man does it look awful right now. Yuck.

I would also like to add that Felix Hernandez has been allowing ground balls at a 50% rate, compared to his career rate of 60%.